Why Verstappen’s subdued Dutch GP practice times hide a major shot at a famous home win

Were it not for Max Verstappen’s rise to race-winning prominence at Red Bull, the Dutch Grand Prix simply wouldn’t be making its long-awaited return to the Formula 1 calendar this weekend. He has engaged the passionate ‘Orange Army’ to justify a visit to Zandvoort for the first time since 1985.

The drive into the circuit - past the enormous but tasteful houses nestled in leafy Haarlem and through the small eponymous province on the sea front, which is every bit the doppelganger of Eastbourne - leaves you in no doubt as to who the home hero is. Just about every flat balcony is sporting a flag of some kind, some chequered, while many display the number ‘33’. Fans lined the perimeter roads throughout the humdrum Thursday media day hoping to clap eyes on one driver.

But for the two-thirds capacity grandstands (as dictated by COVID-19 restrictions, although cute camera angles ensure the vacant grey seats are hard to pick out on TV and give the impression of a sell-out crowd) on Friday, spectators might have come away a touch downbeat about the competitive order for the race that lies in wait. While Verstappen was second-fastest in first practice, running 0.097s in arrears of perpetual rival Lewis Hamilton, he ranked a subdued fifth in FP2.

FP2 overall order

His best effort of 1m11.264s was 0.132s adrift of Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas and some 0.362s shy of session-topper Charles Leclerc, who led a Ferrari 1-2 over team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr. Hamilton, for reference, would end up only 11th after an oil feed irregularity curtailed his session after just three complete laps.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, breaks down during FP2

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Thanks to that stoppage, and another red flag for Nikita Mazepin dropping his Haas into the kitty litter at Turn 11, the teams’ session plans were massively interrupted. Verstappen’s fans might take some comfort knowing that a potential flier to have joined Leclerc by lapping under the 1m11s barrier could have been on the cards, were it not for the interventions. What’s more, Verstappen’s quickest lap was delivered on a used set of the soft-compound C3 Pirellis.

What the home crowd can and should take solace in, however, was the rapid race runs that Verstappen managed to squeeze in between the pauses. While he didn’t bother the top of the times in the final 15 minutes, he pounded round with sound consistency.

While Verstappen’s race runs make for ominous reading, they arrive at a venue where overtaking opportunities are at a premium for what is predicted to be a largely follow-the-leader-style affair

Verstappen admitted: “I don’t think it looks very representative from our side on the short runs, because already after one lap, the tyres do drop off a bit. My lap was on a used set, and the lap I had to abort, [because of Mazepin’s off] I think would have been good enough for first.

“So then, you talk already a bit differently. It’s never perfect. We’ll always try to look into details of what we can do better. We’ll all work on a few things. We’re not entirely happy in the short-run, but the long-run looks competitive. So of course, that is always very important.”

Fuelled for at least a 13-lap run, Verstappen recorded an average time of 1m15.293s on a set of the red-walled soft tyres. By way of comparison, Bottas delivered a six-lap stint with a baseline time of 1m15.666s. The Mercedes driver returned for a second five-tour spell and shaved that average time down to a 1m15.595s. But that was still a three-tenth deficit.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Critically, Autosport understands that Verstappen and Bottas were running in comparable engine modes.
Further, the second practice took place at 1500 local time in sunny conditions. The air temperature registered 21 degrees Celsius and there was 0% chance of rain. Or to put it another way, identical conditions to those predicted for the grand prix proper.

A two-tenth gain, as one source informed Autosport, for Verstappen through Turn 3 appears to be the major deciding factor. Even with the truncated running, there was plenty of evidence that the banked corner had thrown a real curveball.

The left-hander, named in honour of former circuit director John Hugenholtz, has an angle of just 4.5 degrees at its foot. However, it’s a full 19 degrees at its steepest point. By comparison, Avus had a 43-degree incline, Indianapolis just 9 degrees.

Turn 3 is like a bowl and the same principles apply as they do to a motorbike rider tackling the ‘wall of death’. The higher the driver ventures, the more speed they carry, the more the car is pressed into the asphalt. But that increases the distance travelled, so there’s a considerable divergence in lines. It is not ‘one size fits all’.

When Autosport went trackside at Turn 3, Esteban Ocon ran relatively high to leave room for Sergio Perez on the inside to show that passing is possible - although not incredibly likely - unlike at the flat-out, banked Turn 14. Lando Norris barrelled in and stuck to the very top of the curve. While the McLaren appeared stable, given the severity of the banking, sparks from the outer edge of his front wing flew as it dragged across the Tarmac. Norris retained this line lap after lap. Verstappen moved for a far lower entry point before making the climb up the banking for the off-camber exit. Bottas flicked between the two as he chased the fastest route.

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

While Verstappen’s race runs make for ominous reading, they arrive at a venue where overtaking opportunities are at a premium for what is predicted to be a largely follow-the-leader-style affair. If you were being uncharitable, the prediction might be for a 72-lap repeat of processional events at Spa. Only this time, they would be conceived naturally.

As a result, most, including Ferrari, were targeting the one-lap glory as the key to unlocking the weekend. The Scuderia’s sporting director Laurent Mekies explained: “I don’t think the lap times are telling everything from today.

“We have spent a lot of time on trying to prepare qualifying, because we think it’s going to be very difficult to overtake, and we want to spend more time working on the car for quali.

"Everyone has struggled with a lack of running so there isn't masses of data to work with and many had low fuel runs that were compromised with traffic, so we have to expect many teams to move forward tomorrow" Andrew Shovlin

“We haven’t spent much time with the car in race trim, and it’s probably where we are lacking the most right now in terms of competitiveness, if we take today’s picture.

“It’s probably where the main focus is going to be tonight: what can we get out of the very few laps we did today on high fuel to make sure that we have a decent car for the race?

“And from that, we’ll have to choose what way we do FP3 tomorrow, because it’s going to be nearly impossible to overtake. So, how much fuel do you want on the long run in FP3, to get your car to improve on the race trim, or do you switch to the quali preparations because you are on a Monaco-type situation?”

Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

There was a clear split in picking out the optimum line through Turn 3, and in terms of the priority list some teams bestowed its main focus on one-lap pace on Friday. But where the paddock formed a quick consensus was on agreeing that they were poor on data, with Sebastian Vettel’s protracted ERS issues aboard his Aston Martin also robbing some 37 minutes from FP1.

As Mercedes’ Andrew Shovlin summed up: “We've had a tricky day with red flags costing us a lot of running time in the first session and then Lewis had an issue with his car, so we had to stop on track.

“Everyone has struggled with a lack of running so there isn't masses of data to work with and many had low fuel runs that were compromised with traffic, so we have to expect many teams to move forward tomorrow.

“We're struggling a bit with Turn 2-3, we seem to be losing there on both low and high fuel but we've got a bit of time tonight to understand that. There are a few other places we can improve the balance but overall, it doesn't seem too far off.

“We have to recover a bit of running with Lewis but there is time to do that in the morning session.”

Verstappen has already shown his hand in terms of that fine race pace, and FP3 will present the opportunity to the nail the one-lap set-up for what could be an ominous display. As such, despite failing to occupy the usual Red Bull home among the top four of the leaderboard, the Dutch racer has put himself in good stead to give his rapturous orange-clad supporters precisely what they want, and might expect, from this weekend.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images