The signs that point to Rossi's MotoGP retirement

Even though Valentino Rossi insists that he has yet to take a decision on his future, the signs coming from the rider and everything around him suggest that retirement at the end of the 2021 MotoGP season is the most likely and logical outcome.

Unless the Italian legend’s form takes a steep upward turn over the next three or four races, to avert what has been the worst start to a season of his professional career, it will be hard for the seven-time MotoGP world champion to justify continuing into 2022 at the age of 43.

When he joined Yamaha satellite team Petronas SRT for 2021 in a straight swap with factory Yamaha-bound Fabio Quartararo, Rossi insisted that he would only look to the extend the agreement further if the results warranted it. That is certainly not the case at the moment.

SRT team principal Razlan Razali revealed that any hypothetical extension depended, amongst other factors, on a results clause at a certain point of the season - understood to be before the July summer break that follows the Assen TT. Right now, Rossi looks extremely unlikely to make the cut.

After the first five rounds of the championship, Rossi lies 19th in the standings on just nine points, ahead of only Iker Lecuona (eight points) and Lorenzo Savadori (two). Rossi has always been a Sunday man, but this year it looks like he has his days mixed up.

His best race so far came last Sunday at Le Mans, when he finished 11th in a severely weather-affected race. At the opening round in Qatar he crossed the line 11 seconds behind race winner Maverick Vinales in 12th position, and the following week he was four positions and a further three seconds further back from Quartararo. After crashing out in Portugal, he finished 17th in the Spanish GP, 22 seconds behind Jack Miller.

Valentino Rossi, Petronas Yamaha SRT

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Saturdays haven’t gone much better for Rossi though. His best qualifying performance came in the curtain-raiser in Qatar, when he secured fourth on the grid after taking advantage of a slipstream from Francesco Bagnaia. At Le Mans he made Q2 for just the second time, qualifying ninth, having lined up 21st for the Grand Prix of Doha and 17th in both Portimao and Jerez.

Rossi hasn't won a race since Assen 2017 and his last podium was his only one from 2020 in the Andalucian GP at Jerez. It has now been three years since he started a race from pole position, at Mugello in 2018.

Rossi’s retirement has long been one of the most recurring conversations in the paddock. Those without any link to Yamaha or Petronas seem to think that this year’s Valencia Grand Prix will be his last

Rossi’s form looks even worse when compared with the statistics from the other three Yamaha riders on the grid. Between them, Quartararo and Vinales have won three of the five races so far this season, while Rossi's SRT team-mate Franco Morbidelli made the podium in Jerez and was fourth in the Algarve despite riding older machinery. It is the comparison with his fellow Italian that leaves the veteran’s shortcomings most exposed.

“We are running out of ideas,” Rossi admitted after the Spanish GP in Jerez. The next day, during the post-race test, he saw “small smiles” in the garage but clearly they weren’t enough to turn around the general mood.

Taking all of this into account, it is difficult to see this incredible adventure continuing for another season. First of all, the rider would have to go back on his own word, in respect of his results. Beyond that, it would be hard for any of us to watch a rider with such an incredible legacy dragging out the anguish that he is currently enduring.

“When you are not fast or fighting for positions on the podium, at the front, it’s not fun,” Rossi said in one of his recent, increasingly melancholy, press conferences that are such a far cry from the trademark articulate joviality that normally characterises them.

Valentino Rossi, Petronas Yamaha SRT

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Forgetting results for a moment, there is another element that has come to the fore in recent weeks, which Autosport understands is central to deciding which route Rossi will take in future: the conversations he is having with Yamaha about ‘hijacking’ the M1 machines currently ridden by him and Morbidelli from Petronas.

Even though his signing for SRT was at the insistence of the factory, it seems like a condition that would be impossible for the team to continue accepting if he is directly endangering its future. Even though it looks like SRT will hang on to the Japanese prototypes for 2022, the damage has been done - and it is not insignificant.

Rossi’s retirement has long been one of the most recurring conversations in the paddock. Those without any link to Yamaha or Petronas seem to think that this year’s Valencia Grand Prix will be his last. Three team bosses polled by Autosport agree that there is a 95% chance that the 42-year-old will call it a day.

Despite the general consensus, such a development would still be huge for various reasons. Top of the list is the impact on the series of losing its biggest star and main selling point over the last two decades. We are talking about the driving force behind the popularisation of motorcycle racing on a global scale.

Should it actually happen now, the worst thing about Rossi’s long goodbye would be that it would take place in empty circuits, with no opportunity to wave goodbye to the fans that so adore him. Especially at Mugello, his church, where next weekend he may well be performing for the final time.

Valentino Rossi, Petronas Yamaha SRT

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images