The nightmare timing that now hinders Mercedes

Game on. That's the clear take-out from the Bahrain Grand Prix about the tantalising Formula 1 battle we now have on our hands between Red Bull and Mercedes.

While Lewis Hamilton was able to emerge from the F1 season opener with a classy victory, it is pretty clear that Mercedes does not have the fastest car.

We don't know how much Verstappen was slowed by the differential problem that hampered him in sector one on Sunday evening, nor how much Hamilton gained by his numerous wide runs around Turn 4. But at no point of the weekend did Mercedes seem to be the out-and-out quickest.

The battle on Sunday was swung by an aggressive Mercedes strategy, helped by it having both more hard tyres available and two cars in the front battle. Those factors meant Red Bull and Verstappen were hindered in their ability to respond.

In the end, the difference came down to that significant moment at Turn 4 where Verstappen ran wide after overtaking Hamilton, and was then forced to give the position back. It took him time to regain the momentum and close back on the lead Mercedes, but he ran out of laps.

One more time around Sakhir and he may have done it.  Unlucky for him that the race distance had been reduced by one lap - thanks to his own team-mate Sergio Perez having briefly stopped on the way to the grid…

PLUS: How Verstappen's Bahrain mistake can only make him stronger

While Mercedes may have celebrated on Sunday night, by Monday morning the reality of the situation it faces will have been clear: the Red Bull RB16B is F1's pace-setter.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

In the past, Mercedes has always had some gem up its sleeve that gave it the edge over everyone else, be it engine power, peak downforce, corner transition, innovations like DAS or turn-in agility. But right now, the W12 isn't the benchmark in any of those areas.

As head of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin said about the battle with Red Bull: "We've had a lot of years where we've been able to rely on straight-line speed, or high-speed cornering or interconnecting corners.

"I don't see us really being able to develop to a point where we can get clear ahead. And hopefully Red Bull won't develop to a point where they're clear ahead" Andrew Shovlin

"But you look at it here and we weren't taking any time out of them anywhere. There were a couple of corners where they really took chunks out of us in qualifying. The high-speed and also Turns 9/10, they were very strong there.

"And that's really the main thing, in qualifying we're just bang on their pace in our best corners and they're quicker in the others. So we need a faster car, it's as simple as that."

Being on the back foot is not alien to Mercedes, as it has had periods in the years of its turbo hybrid dominance where it hasn't had the fastest car. There have been spells of Red Bull being ahead, and also a long time when Ferrari's power unit was a game-changer for Maranello.

But on each of those occasions, Mercedes was able to respond with either a revamped car, or an upgraded engine. This time is different, so the timing of its 2021 situation is a bit of a nightmare.

Of immediate issue are the restrictions imposed as part of the COVID-19 crisis response to limit teams from spending money on expensive developments. There is no scope to introduce an upgraded power unit this year as that has already had to be homologated. So once Mercedes has ironed out the derating issues it suffered from in Bahrain, that will be it.

Andrew Shovlin, Chief Race Engineer, Mercedes AMG, with Toto Wolff, Executive Director Ð Business, Mercedes AMG

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

On the chassis front, upgrades are limited too. While in the past teams could go the whole hog and introduce an all-new B-spec car if they wished too, this year changes are strictly limited to aerodynamic surfaces – as other major parts are all homologated.

As Aston Martin team boss Otmar Szafnauer has rued about the difficulties his team faces with its low-rake car thanks to the impact of the floor changes, he said: "For the first time ever that I can remember, in my 24 years of the sport we've had to homologate the suspension due to the COVID regulations.

"You could only change it if you actually used your tokens on suspension. So even if we wanted to run 150mm rear ride height, we can't."

PLUS: How the 'Great F1 Rake-Off' delivered a Bahrain GP showdown

The situation Mercedes faces is in trying to work out where the low-hanging fruit is in terms of missing pace. How can it deliver the biggest performance steps in as quick a time as possible without actually being able to change much?

For Shovlin, that means an emphasis shift from working at the factory to find the parts that stack up the downforce points, to simply ensure that, when the W12 hits the track, it is performing at its maximum potential.

"Normally you would look to the windtunnel to try and put on a bit of downforce over the course of the year," he explained. "You would also look at the power unit to try and find a bit of power. Both of those are very restricted by regulations now, so we have very little time in the windtunnel and the dyno is also heavily restricted. We can't develop the engine for performance this year.

"So, we're having to look at more subtle areas to do with driveability characteristics and also arriving at the circuit with the car well sorted, well balanced, doing your homework, knowing how long the tyres will run. This championship is going to come down to the fine margins, more than normal. I don't see us really being able to develop to a point where we can get clear ahead. And hopefully Red Bull won't develop to a point where they're clear ahead."

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, passes a pit board

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

There is a further complication for Mercedes with the new era rules looming larger by the day. The opportunities to do really well in 2022 are there for the picking right now, and teams know that any advantage they gain by switching early to the development of next year's cars will reap rich rewards further down the line, as rivals will not have the time nor opportunity to catch up.

Had Mercedes come out of the Bahrain Grand Prix as clear in front as it was at times last year, then you could be sure that it would be winding down its 2021 focus and throwing everything at its new ground effect design.

"Imagine if we would have started developing the 2021 car later, it would have been even worse! So I think this whole concept of 'let's switch off early in order to get out of the blocks faster for the new year' is a tricky call" Toto Wolff

Now though the option isn't there to call time on its W12 development. But equally, it's not a given that pulling some focus off one car guarantees that another one will be better.

As team principal Toto Wolff said: "It's very difficult to really get it right and in a way you can't sacrifice 2021 in the hope of having a more competitive race car for next year, that's not how it works.

"I think everybody will be balancing their resource between the 2021 car and the 2022 car, including the power units, and we are the same. I guess at the moment we need to give some emphasis to this year's project because we are behind."

Pushed on the fact that Mercedes did elect to switch off updates for its 2020 car in July, Wolff replied: "Imagine if we would have started developing the 2021 car later, it would have been even worse! So I think this whole concept of 'let's switch off early in order to get out of the blocks faster for the new year' is a tricky call.

"You just need to optimise everything and particularly with next year's regulatory change, it's difficult to balance because we don't want to lose this year but we don't want to lose next year either. Starting late for next year means that we could potentially run around behind the leaders for quite a while, not only a year."

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, 1st position, and Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, 3rd position, in parc ferme at the Bahrain Grand Prix.

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

What is fair to say, though, is that despite the headaches Mercedes faces in plotting how it responds, nothing is won or lost right now.

One season opener does not guarantee a title for anyone. The two F1 factories at Brackley and Milton Keynes have it in their hands right now to take this crown – it's just that the opportunities to make gains are so much harder in 2021.

As Shovlin makes clear: "We've got a car that could win a championship if we make some clever decisions with it, do some good work with it and operate well over the year."

As said earlier, it's game on.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, leaves the garage

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images