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Analysis

How long can F1 2021's brewing title battle stay clean?

Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have been evenly matched so far in the 2021 Formula 1 title race. Neither has been afraid to get aggressive against each other on track, teeing up an enthralling contest as the year unwinds. But is their rivalry destined to end in broken shards of carbon fibre?

Four grands prix down, and at each of those Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have passed each other on track at least once. But, despite a remarkable run of F1’s title protagonists going at it wheel-to-wheel, not once has there been an occasion where their battle has spilled over into a full-on collision.

Sure there was a bit of Red Bull front wheel on Mercedes front wing endplate at Imola’s Turn 1, and Hamilton had to get out of it at Barcelona’s opening corner last weekend to avoid contact there but, so far, it’s been hard but ultimately fair.

PLUS: What the Spain result tells F1 about the next phase of the Mercedes/Red Bull fight

As Mercedes boss Toto Wolff reflected on Verstappen’s aggression in Spain: “The manoeuvre was hard, but not out of the norm. That's why it's OK. They didn't touch each other. At least we didn't have any loss of downforce and we didn't lose any part.”

But, while the biggest point of contact between Hamilton and Verstappen so far this year has been when they banged shoulders (deliberate or not, you decide...) as they crossed paths during the TV interviews post-qualifying at Imola, the battle lines between them are becoming more and more defined.

As both men learn more about what they can expect of their rival when they find themselves side-by-side, it is certainly not guaranteed that what has been accepted up until now will be the case for the remainder of the year, especially when the title battle gets down to the business end of the season.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, battles with Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, battles with Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Both have shown varying levels of aggression, and both have made it clear that they are not going to give an inch more of track than they need to when it comes to fighting for position. That’s exactly how it should be.

Just as Hamilton made sure to run things out as wide as he could in their Bahrain Turn 4 moment, and at Portimao’s Turn 3 when Verstappen tried to respond to being overtaken, so too has the Red Bull man shown that he is willing to leave it up to his Mercedes rival to remove himself from the moment to avoid a crash.

Both at Imola and Barcelona’s Turn 1, Hamilton could easily have put his car in a position when contact would have been inevitable as Verstappen laid claim to the normal inside racing line. But both times, Hamilton was mindful of the long game; and that old racing adage of you can’t win the race at the first corner, but you can lose it.

“I think, in hindsight, there could have been a moment, looking back, that when Max moved in behind me for a second, I could have pulled across and sealed the job there – but I didn’t” Lewis Hamilton

While that long game thinking is perfectly logical, equally Hamilton will not want to be in a situation where he feels that Verstappen will automatically expect him to get out of the way when he lunges it down the inside. At some point, a marker in the sand needs to be laid down to perhaps readjust where both believe the lines are drawn.

Does this mean that Hamilton will trigger a collision to a make a point? Highly unlikely, as one of the tenets of his F1 career has been that he doesn’t play dirty. He is not the type of driver who will deliberately cause a crash; but equally he isn’t someone who wants to be viewed as a push over.

If there were to be any change of approach, it could well be that one of the key lessons from losing positions to Verstappen into Turn 1 in Imola and Barcelona was that he didn’t aggressively close the door on his rival away from the line. Both times he played things dead straight in his run down to the first corners, and both times that allowed Verstappen’s momentum to carry him alongside and take the inside line into the opening corner. Being the driver on the outside, you are really putting yourself at the mercy of the guy inside and if he is or isn’t willing to back off.

Verstappen and Hamilton go wheel-to-wheel at the start in Spain

Verstappen and Hamilton go wheel-to-wheel at the start in Spain

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Reflecting on the Spanish GP start, Hamilton said there had been an opportunity to shut the door on Verstappen, which is perhaps where the biggest difference will come if there is a change of approach.

“I think, in hindsight, there could have been a moment, looking back, that when Max moved in behind me for a second, I could have pulled across and sealed the job there – but I didn’t,” he explained.

“And then, as we went into Turn 1, I just made sure I gave as much space as I could to Max. In my mind, it’s always a marathon, not a sprint, so I’m just always thinking the long game and sure, you could be a little bit more aggressive.

“Do I need to? Well, I’m in the position that I’m in because I don’t get too aggressive when I don’t need to be.”

Hamilton’s contentment at the moment in not being more aggressive, in contrast to Verstappen’s mindset in grabbing every opportunity he can, is not necessarily rooted in a differing opinion over what they view fair or not. In fact, it could be argued that the contrast in how they have done things is actually the result of the cars that they have underneath them.

From Verstappen’s perspective, apart from Bahrain, he has had three races where he knows he has not had the quickest car on Sunday and he’s coming from behind.

If you are a driver at the top of F1, and you know that if you come out of the first corner behind a car that it is going to pull away from you, then there really is only one opportunity to give yourself a shot at that win. And that’s muscling your way past.

Max Verstappen, Spanish GP 2021 press conference

Max Verstappen, Spanish GP 2021 press conference

Photo by: Xavier Bonilla - Pool/Getty Images

Speaking about his Turn 1 mindset to Dutch TV channel Ziggo Sport after the Spanish GP, Verstappen said: “That first corner was just a matter of who brakes last comes out first. I just went for it, because I knew it would be difficult otherwise.

If they were in the reverse scenario, where Hamilton knew that the only way to win was to come out of Turn 1 in front, then it is unlikely that things would be playing out much different to what we see now

"It was just a calculated risk. I just went faster into that corner and then at a certain point, if you’re on the outside, you just need to give up.”

Equally from Hamilton’s viewpoint, having the knowledge that you’ve got a car and tyre strategy that you know can come out on top if you are not leading at the exit of Turn 1, gives you a certain level of confidence that if you do back out of a move, it is not the end of the world.

If they were in the reverse scenario, where Hamilton knew that the only way to win was to come out of Turn 1 in front, then it is unlikely that things would be playing out much different to what we see now.

Hamilton teased on Sunday night that battling with Verstappen in Spain had given him a great insight into the mindset of the Dutchman.

“I learned a lot about Max today, perhaps more than all the other races put together,” he said.

It will be fascinating to find out now whether he likes what he has learned, or if there is going to be a little bit of push back...

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, talk in Parc Ferme

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1st position, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, 2nd position, talk in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

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